What the Maple Leafs are signalling about their plans for Matthew Knies and the offseason

Save for Brendan Shanahan’s exit, the offseason has been eerily quiet for the Toronto Maple Leafs. However that’s about to vary. We will say that for positive with the draft and free company proper across the nook.

What does normal supervisor Brad Treliving have in retailer? He met with the media on Thursday afternoon to debate, amongst different issues, Mitch Marner’s future, new contracts for Matthew Knies and John Tavares and Nick Robertson’s future with the Leafs.

On Marner’s future: “I’d in all probability describe it, except there’s a big change right here, I’d anticipate that he’s going to hit the market, and we’ll see the place issues go.”

What it means: Marner is leaving … shock! It’s been a foregone conclusion for months now that Marner is headed elsewhere in free company. There’s not a lot Treliving can say on the topic in any other case. He wouldn’t wish to shut the door fully in case there may be some last-minute change of coronary heart from Marner (even when a breakup feels prefer it’s finest for each events).

Requested if the Leafs would meet with Marner on July 1, Treliving stated, “We’ve had communications regularly, so we’ll see how every part performs out.”

In different phrases, what’s the purpose?

On contract talks with John Tavares: “My hope is, till confirmed in any other case, that we’ll have a superb end result.”

What it means: Treliving reiterated that the Leafs wish to maintain Tavares and Tavares desires to maintain being a Leaf. However nonetheless, greater than a month after the tip of the season, almost a full yr for the reason that two groups may agree on a brand new deal, and with days to go till the beginning of free company, the 2 sides haven’t agreed on the “two little obstacles,” as Treliving put it, that maintain up all contracts: Time period and cash.

The Leafs may be hoping for extra time period and, because of this, a decrease cap hit. However for the way lengthy, and at what quantity, is palatable to Tavares? Does he even wish to settle for a six-year contract like Chris Tanev did if it robs him of the flexibility to seize yet another contract down the road?

What’s the compromise right here?

The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun mused about the opportunity of Tavares accepting a four-year deal, with a $5 million cap hit.

The Leafs would little question take that cap ticket on a three-year deal. Are they OK with a fourth yr, although, when Tavares will probably be 38? Do they suppose that’s sufficient of a reduction to make it worthwhile?

Can they get that quantity down nearer to the $4.5 million ticket that got here with Matt Duchene’s four-year deal? What if $5 million is as little as Tavares will go? Are the Leafs ready to stroll away? Is Tavares ready to depart dwelling?

Who budges first right here, if in any respect? As Treliving famous, “Clearly with John, there’s a deadline.”

On the Matthew Knies supply sheet chance: “We wish to be sure that we’re protected.”

What it means: The Leafs want to make sure they maintain (or can clear) sufficient cap house to maintain Knies if he indicators a suggestion sheet on July 1. In different phrases, they should guarantee, with no matter they do (free company or commerce), they’ve the means to maintain their rising energy ahead.

How a lot house is that, even — $7 million, $8 million, extra? And what’s an excessive amount of? What’s the quantity on a suggestion sheet that may have the Leafs stroll away from Knies?

A suggestion sheet with an AAV between $7,020,113 and $9,360,153 would web the Leafs picks within the first, second and third spherical, which seems like nothing for a participant of Knies’ age (22) and upside, although there’s the added cap house too.

Something above that $9.3 million threshold and the return can be two firsts, one second and a 3rd. Nonetheless feels a tad mild, given Knies’ significance to the Leafs, particularly within the current and in addition sooner or later when he may develop into a star. However that’s additionally a fairly hefty chunk of cash for somebody who had 58 factors final season. (Something at $9 million and past, and the Leafs in all probability get squeamish.)

Of essential significance in regards to the picks in that situation: Which workforce is it? Is it a bottom-feeder? A middle-of-the-road squad?

Knies has to signal with the workforce in query, which implies he must be ready to depart the Leafs, the place he has a comfortable spot on the primary line subsequent to Auston Matthews.

Is he keen to do this if he can’t get what he’s in search of from the Leafs?

Even when issues crept into uncomfortable territory for the Leafs by way of a suggestion sheet, greater than they’ve cushioned for that’s, they may all the time dump contracts (David Kämpf? Calle Järnkrok? Max Domi?) and create house that means.

They might achieve this anyway.

On buying and selling away prospects and picks: “In a normal remark, I’d say we’re open to every part. However once more, it’s gotta make sense. So we’re not simply going to shuffle out a prospect for the sake of a prospect, however yeah, we’re all kinds of eventualities. On the finish of the day, it’s gotta match from a roster standpoint, greenback standpoint and worth standpoint.”

What it means: On the one hand, what can Treliving say? The Leafs have very restricted means to make a commerce. Their most tradable stuff, the stuff they’d be ready to half with and would have some worth: Prospects and picks. Then once more, that pool is sort of skinny for the time being. The Leafs don’t have a first-round choose within the upcoming draft, or the one after that, or the one after that. Their finest choose within the close to future is the second-rounder they maintain this weekend.

Are they keen to surrender extra of the long run within the identify of the current? Would that embody Easton Cowan, their high prospect?

In accordance with Treliving, the reply is, tentatively, sure. And it kinda must be. The Leafs have Matthews beneath contract for under three extra seasons. Their window to maintain pushing in is now. This workforce has main holes to fill, and free company gives options solely to a few of them. Any and all futures need to be on the desk — relying, in fact, on what’s coming again.

Treliving did counsel that his workforce is extra prone to commerce down from their high choose (sixty fourth total) than commerce up.

On Max Pacioretty’s want to maintain enjoying: “I believe so. I do. I consider that he does.”

What it means: The query now’s whether or not Pacioretty desires to proceed his profession as a Leaf and if it’s at a worth that’s appropriate to the Leafs.

Pacioretty was coming off a rocky, injury-plagued season when he signed a PTO and later a one-year take care of the Leafs final fall. After a so-so common season, with some accidents blended in, Pacioretty was among the many workforce’s finest gamers within the playoffs. He completed fourth on the workforce with eight factors, yet another than Knies and Tavares. What sort of deal, if it’s in Toronto, is the 36-year-old in search of now? And does it go well with the Leafs, given that he’s in all probability finest suited to restricted regular-season utilization to be as recent as potential within the playoffs? The place do they slot him in if he returns?

If it’s a one-year deal for, say, $1 million, it’s in all probability definitely worth the workforce’s whereas to maintain him round.

On Nick Robertson’s match with the Leafs: “Once more, we’re June no matter we’re. So the puzzle’s gotta come into place, however I believe Nick’s a superb participant. He’s nonetheless a younger participant, he’s nonetheless an evolving participant, however he’s bought a ability set — he shoots it within the web. That’s a superb ability set to have. We’ll see the way it all performs out.”

What it means: Robertson requested a commerce final summer time, didn’t get it, signed a one-year contract, and was largely ineffective in a still-limited function. He bought into solely three playoff video games for Craig Berube. And now he wants a brand new contract as soon as extra, solely this time he has arbitration rights on his aspect. His future nearly definitely lies elsewhere. The Leafs in all probability wish to maintain open the likelihood that he returns, simply in case they don’t provide you with sufficient in free company or commerce and wish to maintain Robertson round. That, and/or lacklustre commerce gives. They may all the time attempt to deal him after they’ve bought a greater learn on their ahead group, that’s.

Then once more, what if they will’t? Are they ready to carry Robertson again but once more?

The scenario feels similar to what occurred final summer time with Timothy Liljegren, when the workforce tried to commerce Liljegren earlier than qualifying gives had been due, didn’t, after which (amid arbitration fears) agreed to signal him to a two-year contract. Liljegren rapidly misplaced Berube’s confidence and was dealt to San Jose.

All of which is to say the Leafs may wish to keep away from boxing themselves in with a participant who doesn’t match the stylings of their coach and who may (positively?) like a possibility elsewhere. However what do they do? To not qualify Robertson can be to present him away for nothing. And what in the event that they do find yourself needing a third-liner who can rating a bit?

(Prime photograph of Matthew Knies: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Pictures)