NFL offseason energy rankings: No. 17 Seattle Seahawks financial institution on QB swap for Sam Darnold

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The Seattle Seahawks received 10 video games and nearly made the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s first season as their head coach. They did not act prefer it after the season was over.

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Most 10-win groups do not make main adjustments. The Seahawks made a pair. They swapped out quarterbacks, buying and selling away Geno Smith after which paying Sam Darnold in free company. Smith needed a brand new contract, but it surely’s not like he obtained that rather more from Las Vegas than Seattle paid Darnold. The Seahawks made a selection to maneuver on to the youthful Darnold. Then the Seahawks traded away maybe their most marketable star, receiver DK Metcalf. They obtained a second-round draft choose in return, which wasn’t the type of provide they could not refuse. They needed to be carried out with Metcalf earlier than they needed to give him one other contract, and Metcalf needed out too. The Seahawks may have run it again with Smith and Metcalf. It would not have been low-cost, however they may have figured it out. They selected a distinct path.

That is not how most NFL groups function. Groups will speak themselves into the thought they’re nearer than they really are, and stick to the established order to keep away from second guessing. Give the Seahawks credit score for being daring.

“We saved a mentality all through, why are we making these choices?” Macdonald mentioned. “If we go down this highway, what does it appear to be? Is it finest for our crew? That is the standards. It appeared prefer it occurred actually shortly however we really feel like we went by the method the suitable approach and made the most effective choice for us.”

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The quarterback swap was attention-grabbing as a result of the crew talked up Smith within the offseason, then bailed when the value obtained too steep. Smith was traded for a third-round choose, then obtained a two-year, $75 million extension from the Raiders. Darnold, about seven years youthful and coming off an enormous season with the Vikings, was signed for $100.5 million over three years. The Seahawks gave up familiarity, however obtained youthful and cheaper on the place whereas buying a top-100 draft choose. It may backfire if Darnold cannot replicate his unbelievable season exterior of an excellent atmosphere with the Vikings.

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The Seahawks have been in the course of a gradual transition for a number of seasons. Over the previous few years Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll departed, together with every other remaining members of the crew’s mini-dynasty of the 2010s like Bobby Wagner. In style receiver Tyler Lockett was launched this offseason. The protection underwent an identification change in Macdonald’s first season as head coach. Then got here the massive trades that despatched off Smith and Metcalf, which led to the Darnold addition.

Thus far, the Seahawks have remained aggressive. It isn’t straightforward to win 10 video games. Seattle hopes that although some extra adjustments, the ceiling will get a little bit larger.

Offseason grade

The Seahawks’ offense will look totally different. Final season Geno Smith was throwing to DK Metcalf, and each have been traded away. Sam Darnold steps in because the crew’s new quarterback and he did not come low-cost. Darnold had a extra productive 2024 season, however is he a greater quarterback than Smith? The Seahawks hope so. There was additionally an offensive coordinator change to Klint Kubiak, who comes over from the Saints. The large free-agent additions aside from Darnold have been two gamers who the Seahawks are hoping have at the very least yet another good season left on the finish of nice careers: receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive finish DeMarcus Lawrence. Neither one is a certain factor. The Rams had no real interest in bringing Kupp again (and his skill from the slot is oddly duplicitous with 2024 Seahawks breakout star Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and Lawrence had seven sacks in 21 video games over the previous two seasons with the Cowboys. Seattle put a precedence on re-signing free-agent linebacker Ernest Jones IV and defensive sort out Jarran Reed, and retained each. The Seahawks launched Tyler Lockett and defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones, a giant signing two years in the past who did not work out. The draft was good. First-rounder Gray Zabel offers wanted offensive line assist, second-rounders Nick Emmanwori (security) and Elijah Arroyo (tight finish) ought to be quick contributors and Jalen Milroe is an intriguing developmental quarterback within the third spherical.

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Grade: B-

Quarterback report

It is only one rating, however Professional Soccer Focus ranked Geno Smith because the Tenth-best quarterback within the NFL going into this season and Sam Darnold twenty sixth. That looks like approach too large of a niche, but it surely reveals that Smith is underrated and Darnold has so much to show. Was Darnold’s huge season (he completed ninth within the MVP voting) a fluke fueled by Kevin O’Connell’s play-calling magic? It was fully past Darnold’s earlier degree, and poor outings within the regular-season finale and a playoff loss rekindled skepticism about what had appeared like a real breakout. Mike Macdonald laughably needed to affirm through the offseason that his $100.5 million quarterback can be the starter in Week 1. Outdoors of the Seahawks’ constructing there is not numerous religion in Darnold coming into the season.

An enormous issue for Darnold, because it was with Minnesota, will probably be his synergy with new Seahawks offensive coordinator and play-caller Klint Kubiak. The Seahawks made an unconventional rent at offensive coordinator final season with Ryan Grubb straight from the College of Washington, and so they admitted a mistake once they fired Grubb after one season. Kubiak was a sizzling identify early final season when New Orleans’ offense obtained off to a quick begin, and though the Saints pale badly — accidents performed a giant function in that — the Seahawks are hopeful that Kubiak can direct a extra balanced offense that emphasizes a tricky run sport, led by a succesful working again duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. That might assist take strain off Darnold.

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BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “QB Geno Smith and WR DK Metcalf (together with Tyler Lockett) are out; QB Sam Darnold and WR Cooper Kupp are in. The Seahawks (+500) have the longest odds to win the NFC West at BetMGM and are an extended shot (+180) to make the postseason, however there’s hope within the Pacific Northwest. Whereas the Seahawks are slight underdogs in 4 of their first 5 video games, they do get to face the NFC South and AFC South. Seattle can have loads of journey although, and doesn’t play consecutive residence video games till Week 15.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Early Yahoo drafters are treating Kenneth Walker because the RB18. I am not at that worth. The Seahawks have a substandard offensive line, and Zach Charbonnet was a extra environment friendly runner and receiver than Walker final season. Walker has additionally missed a number of video games as a result of harm in every of his three professional seasons. I will take into consideration Charbonnet within the later rounds, or skip this backfield altogether.”

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Stat to recollect

The Seahawks’ protection was reworked after a midseason commerce with the Titans for linebacker Ernest Jones IV. Jones joined the crew in Week 8, and from a Week 10 bye on the protection ranked sixth within the NFL in EPA (anticipated factors added) per play. It ranked twenty first earlier than the bye. Seattle allowed 24.6 factors per sport earlier than the bye and 18.4 after it. The starkest distinction was towards the run, with Seattle permitting 139.4 speeding yards earlier than the bye and 99.8 after it.

Jones performed properly and had a giant function in that enchancment. There is a purpose Seattle signed him to a three-year, $28.5 million extension. However it appears extra probably that the defensive enchancment coincided with the crew getting used to Mike Macdonald’s new and complex scheme over the second half of the season. No matter what led to the large enchancment, there isn’t any purpose it might’t carry over to 2025.

Burning query

Can Jaxon Smith-Njigba do much more?

Smith-Njigba was a first-round draft choose in 2023 and had a so-so rookie season. Expectations weren’t overly excessive for his second season. Then he tied a Seahawks document with 100 receptions and had 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns whereas making a Professional Bowl. Not unhealthy.

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The Seahawks would possibly rely much more on Smith-Njigba this season. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone. Metcalf by no means had fewer than 100 targets in his six Seahawks seasons. Lockett declined final season however nonetheless had 49 catches for 600 yards. That is numerous manufacturing to switch. Cooper Kupp will absorb a few of the targets and yards although offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak may need to get inventive to get probably the most out of Kupp and JSN, who each function from the slot. Additionally, the Rams not making any effort to deliver Kupp again is alarming contemplating Kupp is 32 years previous with an extended harm historical past. Even when Kupp is productive, it appears inevitable that Smith-Njigba’s targets will rise from 137 final season to one thing properly north of 150. He confirmed final season he generally is a excessive quantity producer.

Finest-case state of affairs

We’re in an period of quarterbacks reinventing themselves with their second, third, fourth, or in Sam Darnold’s case, fifth NFL crew. Darnold began with the Jets, one of many worst organizations in sports activities, moved to the Panthers, who should not that a lot better than the Jets, after which spent a 12 months studying with the 49ers earlier than a unbelievable season beginning for the Vikings. It isn’t that outrageous to imagine Darnold, as soon as the third general choose of the draft, can have a Baker Mayfield sort of renaissance that lasts a couple of season. Two unhealthy video games to finish final season do not get rid of all of the strides he made. If Darnold’s new degree sticks, the Seahawks are arrange properly. Seattle’s protection improved dramatically late final season. Its offense may benefit from a change in coordinators. Seattle received 10 video games final season and if Darnold continues what we noticed final season in Minnesota, the Seahawks may enhance and contend for an NFC West title.

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Nightmare state of affairs

Seemingly everybody, aside from the Seahawks’ brass, has given up on Sam Darnold as a result of two unhealthy video games to complete final season. And possibly these critics are proper. Darnold’s NFL profession has had far more failure than success. It will sting to appreciate early within the season that shifting on from Geno Smith to signal Darnold was a giant mistake. Maybe the offense is not fairly as dynamic with out DK Metcalf to stretch the sector, and the protection appears to be like extra prefer it did within the first half of final season than the improved model we noticed after Seattle’s bye. The primary purpose groups hardly ever make daring strikes away from what feels protected is that they worry being fallacious. If Darnold struggles and Seattle slips to a shedding season, there will probably be loads of questions on its offseason plan.

The crystal ball says

The Seahawks by no means felt like a 10-win crew final season. They profiled as a middle-of-the-road group in lots of superior stats. A reasonably fortunate 6-2 document in video games determined by seven factors or much less in all probability accounts for the distinction. Seattle appears a step behind the 49ers and Rams (and possibly the Cardinals?) within the NFC West, and the NFC has loads of wild-card contenders this season. Sam Darnold for Geno Smith will not be the rationale the Seahawks’ document slips a bit, however Darnold will not repeat his 2024 season both. It’ll all depart the Seahawks just about the place they have been final season, in the course of the pack.