Bitcoin value goal hinges on Fed pivot and ETF flows: Bitunix analyst

In a dialog with Dean Chen, Analyst at Bitunix, we mentioned key macroeconomic and crypto market developments after per week of elevated volatility and coverage hypothesis.

With U.S. personal payroll progress lacking expectations and U.S. President Trump doubling down on requires fee cuts, Chen offered considerate insights into how these dynamics might impression Bitcoin (BTC) and different digital belongings. As markets weigh the prospect of a Fed pivot towards rising recession dangers, Chen outlined how sentiment-driven value strikes might both enhance or destabilize crypto within the brief time period.

We additionally explored Bitcoin’s evolving function throughout financial downturns, Ethereum’s (ETH) relative underperformance, and what’s actually behind the current institutional-led crypto rally.

Chen broke down the situations wanted to assist bullish BTC forecasts, the importance of crypto ETFs, and the trade-offs between direct asset possession and conventional autos.

As regulatory momentum builds in Washington and state-backed stablecoins emerge, Chen’s evaluation helps make clear how Bitunix and the broader market are getting ready for a brand new period of institutional integration and coverage readability.

Beneath is the total Q&A with Dean Chen.

Editor’s be aware: This interview was carried out previous to the discharge of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report referenced within the first query.

crypto.information: The US labor market is flashing indicators of cooling, personal payrolls rose simply 37,000 in Could vs. 110,000 anticipated (a two-year low). This weak point has even prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to resume strain on the Fed for fee cuts. If the upcoming non-farm payrolls report this Friday additionally dramatically undershoots expectations, what impression do you anticipate on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market? Would one other weak jobs print show to be a significant catalyst for crypto on hopes of an earlier Fed pivot, or might it spook buyers concerning the economic system and really harm threat belongings like crypto within the brief time period?

Dean Chen: If the info exhibits weak point, it might briefly enhance market expectations of an early Fed fee lower, as decrease charges usually improve liquidity and improve the attraction of threat belongings, thereby driving crypto costs increased.

Nonetheless, overly weak information might additionally set off considerations concerning the general well being of the economic system, doubtlessly signaling a recession threat and prompting buyers to shift towards safer belongings. As such, the market response may very well be combined. On this context, if markets consider the Fed will act rapidly to assist the economic system, optimism round a “Fed pivot” might dominate sentiment, pushing crypto costs upward.

CN: Trump argues the U.S. economic system is in a “downward spiral”, pushing for fast fee cuts. Markets are already pricing in at the very least one Fed fee lower by September. If the economic system does slip towards recession, do you count on Bitcoin to behave extra like digital gold (rallying as a protected haven) or like a high-risk asset (falling alongside shares)? In 2022, crypto tumbled throughout recession fears regardless of excessive inflation, which challenged the “inflation hedge” thesis. Has Bitcoin confirmed itself but as a recession-resistant asset, or is its destiny nonetheless tied to financial progress and liquidity?

DC: Bitcoin has thus far behaved extra like a high-risk asset than a safe-haven “digital gold” throughout financial downturns. The expertise of 2022 confirmed that even amid excessive inflation, crypto belongings fell sharply, difficult the narrative of Bitcoin as an “inflation hedge.”

Bitcoin’s worth fluctuations are intently tied to international liquidity, investor threat urge for food, and financial progress. In instances of financial contraction, buyers usually flip to money or conventional protected havens like gold and the U.S. greenback, relatively than high-volatility belongings like Bitcoin, indicating it has but to show itself as a recession-resistant asset.

CN: We’ve seen extraordinarily bullish calls from some market pundits calling for Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the top of the yr. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee goes even increased (though he at all times gave the impression to be an outlier) at $250,000 on account of increasing liquidity and the post-halving provide squeeze. Do you agree with these optimistic targets? What elementary drivers would wish to materialize to justify Bitcoin climbing to ~$150,000+

DC: Whereas a year-end Bitcoin value goal of $200,000 and even $250,000 is thrilling, I consider we must always consider its feasibility with warning. To realize a value above $150,000, a number of elementary drivers should align.

First, sustained institutional inflows—particularly constant internet inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—are essential to assist costs. Second, a pivot by international central banks towards financial easing would inject liquidity into markets, favoring threat belongings like Bitcoin. Moreover, the post-halving provide squeeze, if met with secure or rising demand, would additional carry costs.

The macroeconomic atmosphere additionally performs an important function. A “smooth touchdown” situation—the place inflation is beneath management, financial progress slows, and the Fed cuts charges with out triggering a recession—can be best for Bitcoin. On the regulatory entrance, clear and innovation-friendly crypto laws in main economies would entice extra conventional capital into the market.

Lastly, technological developments throughout the Bitcoin community and broader crypto ecosystem—corresponding to larger adoption of the Lightning Community and the expansion of DeFi purposes—will improve Bitcoin’s utility and long-term worth. Whereas the outlook is optimistic, it needs to be approached with measured expectations.

CN: Whereas Bitcoin remains to be inside placing distance of its all-time highs, Ethereum remains to be 40–50% under its document peak. Ethereum is down ~23% year-to-date regardless of the broader crypto restoration. Why do you assume ETH has underperformed BTC on this cycle? Is it merely lagging and poised for a catch-up rally, or are there elementary components, just like the post-Merge shift to staking, regulatory considerations round deeming ETH a safety, competitors from different L1s/L2s, which might be protecting Ethereum’s positive factors extra muted? Moreover, with Ethereum’s community upgrades ongoing, what’s your outlook for ETH for the remainder of the yr?

DC: Bitcoin, being the biggest and most liquid cryptocurrency, usually attracts capital first throughout market upswings and serves as a “market indicator.” Ethereum usually lags behind and catches up later as soon as Bitcoin’s momentum is established.

Following Ethereum’s Merge and transition to a Proof-of-Stake mannequin, a big quantity of ETH has been staked, decreasing circulating provide and briefly limiting value flexibility. This has probably led some speculative capital to stream into belongings with increased short-term upside.

On the regulatory entrance, uncertainty over whether or not ETH shall be categorized as a safety by the U.S. SEC has suppressed institutional demand. Competitors is one other issue. Different Layer 1s (like Solana and Avalanche) and Layer 2 options (corresponding to Arbitrum and Optimism) provide decrease charges and better throughput, diverting customers and builders.

Regardless of these headwinds, Ethereum’s long-term outlook stays sturdy. Its ongoing upgrades are considerably decreasing Layer 2 transaction prices and enhancing scalability, reinforcing its community utility. Ethereum stays the spine of DeFi and NFTs, backed by a vibrant developer ecosystem. Because the market recovers, these use instances will proceed driving ETH demand.

In abstract, Ethereum has long-term progress potential supported by its technical innovation, sturdy ecosystem, and bettering scalability. If bullish sentiment persists, ETH might finally observe BTC towards new highs.

CN: We now have a plethora of crypto ETFs available on the market, together with a brand new Trump-branded “Reality Social Bitcoin ETF”. To what extent do you assume the current Bitcoin rally has been pushed by institutional buyers allocating by way of ETFs and different autos, versus retail merchants? Do you assume institutional adoption is reaching a tipping level that basically modifications market dynamics?

DC: The current Bitcoin rally has been largely pushed by institutional buyers allocating via ETFs and different structured merchandise, relatively than by retail merchants alone. Institutional adoption is certainly approaching a essential inflection level. Growing numbers of conventional asset managers, hedge funds, and even companies are incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios or stability sheets.

This institutional capital not solely helps stabilize market volatility but additionally strengthens Bitcoin’s legitimacy as an asset class. It marks a profound shift in market construction and units the muse for extra sustainable long-term progress within the crypto house.

CN: Why may an investor select direct possession of Bitcoin or different digital currencies over gaining publicity via ETFs or equities, and the way do the trade-offs evaluate by way of relative threat profiles, anticipated returns and correlation to the underlying asset?

DC: Buyers who prioritize true possession, most management, and participation in on-chain ecosystems—and who’re snug with the duty of self-custody—usually desire direct possession. Alternatively, those that search publicity via acquainted and controlled conventional monetary devices, and preferring operational simplicity, might go for ETFs or equities.

Every methodology has trade-offs: direct possession affords larger decentralization and autonomy however entails increased custody threat and complexity. ETFs present comfort and regulatory protections however might carry monitoring errors and lack full utility of the underlying digital asset.

CN: After years of uncertainty and enforcement-driven coverage, the U.S. is lastly seeing strikes towards clearer crypto regulation. In late Could, lawmakers launched the bipartisan Digital Asset Market Readability Act of 2025, which might break up oversight between the SEC and CFTC and even present protected harbors for DeFi protocols. And over on the SEC, the brand new Chairman Paul Atkins advised Congress he’ll pursue “notice-and-comment” rulemaking (not simply lawsuits) to craft “clear guidelines of the street” for crypto belongings. How optimistic are you that we’ll see significant regulatory readability within the close to future? If complete laws just like the CLARITY Act advances, and the SEC shifts to formal rulemaking, what impression would which have available on the market and on corporations like Bitunix? Are buyers already pricing in a extra pleasant regulatory atmosphere beneath the present administration, or is skepticism nonetheless warranted till precise legal guidelines and guidelines take impact?

DC: I stay cautiously optimistic about reaching significant regulatory readability within the U.S. within the close to time period. The Digital Asset Market Readability Act of 2025 and new coverage course beneath SEC Chairman Paul Atkins symbolize sturdy momentum towards establishing a extra outlined regulatory framework for digital belongings. This is able to be essential for fostering innovation, attracting institutional capital, and defending customers.

That stated, challenges stay. Legislative complexity and diverging stakeholder pursuits might sluggish progress, and even after passage, rule implementation might take time.

For platforms like Bitunix, this laws affords a number of positives. It could present authorized certainty for digital asset buying and selling, permitting for long-term planning and enlargement. Clear laws would additionally entice extra conventional monetary individuals, accelerating market progress and ecosystem growth.

Though preliminary compliance prices might rise, this shift would in the end improve competitiveness and construct belief. Clear and rigorous regulation would enhance Bitunix’s credibility and status available in the market.
Whereas expectations of friendlier regulation are rising, warning remains to be warranted. Solely as soon as clear and enforceable authorized frameworks are in place can the market absolutely value within the implications.

CN: Stablecoins proceed to play a essential function in crypto markets, and now they’re getting into mainstream finance. Notably, Circle has filed for an IPO on the NYSE aiming for roughly a $6 billion valuation. On the similar time, novel experiments are rising: the state of Wyoming is launching a fully-reserved, fiat-backed “Wyoming Secure Token” in July, the primary state-issued stablecoin within the US. What do these developments sign about the way forward for stablecoins? Does Circle going public point out that regulated stablecoin suppliers will turn into as widespread as banks, integrating with conventional markets? How may a authorities or central-bank-linked stablecoin (whether or not a state token like WYST or a possible Fed CBDC down the road) compete with personal cash like USDC or Tether? And talking of Tether, it’s nonetheless the market’s largest stablecoin, do you see any dangers round USDT’s dominance in a extra regulated future, or will it proceed to thrive regardless of perennial transparency considerations?

DC: Stablecoins are taking part in an more and more very important function in each crypto markets and mainstream finance, signaling their potential to turn into foundational infrastructure for international funds and settlement. Circle’s IPO highlights how significantly Wall Avenue now takes regulated stablecoin suppliers, accelerating the convergence of crypto and conventional finance. Going ahead, legitimacy and regulatory compliance shall be key drivers of mainstream adoption.

Authorities- or central bank-issued stablecoins—like WYST or a future Fed CBDC—have sovereign belief benefits and profit from regulatory readability, making them simpler to combine into current monetary methods. This presents aggressive strain for personal stablecoins like USDC and USDT. To stay aggressive, personal issuers might want to improve reserve transparency and innovate in providers, notably in blockchain-native purposes and cross-border funds.

Tether, regardless of being the biggest stablecoin, might face regulatory dangers if it doesn’t deal with transparency considerations. In a extra regulated atmosphere, USDT will both want to regulate its reserve practices to fulfill rising disclosure requirements or concentrate on markets with much less stringent oversight.