Persistence or Panic: Freddie Freeman, Jac Caglianone, and Sonny Grey

Welcome again to Week 17 of our Persistence or Panic collection, the place we profile three struggling gamers and supply suggestions on how you need to react to their poor efficiency. As soon as play resumes after the All-Star break, it actually looks like a dash to the end in our fantasy leagues. Some codecs with extra drawn-out playoff brackets might be beginning their postseasons quickly, and the remainder of us are attempting to place ourselves nicely for the ultimate stretch. A crucial a part of that’s making tough sit/begin and reduce/hold selections.

This week, all three of the gamers I cowl include appreciable fantasy hype. Two of them are veterans who’ve been getting it accomplished for years now whereas the third is a hyped-up rookie who’s struggled mightily since getting referred to as up. All stats are via the video games of Monday, July 21.

 

Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD

 

Final 30 days (since 6/23): 93 PA, .202/.280/.310 (68 wRC+), 9 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB

2025: 371 PA, .292/.364/.471 (132 wRC+), 47 R, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB

The ever-consistent Freeman has had a tough go of it these days after getting off to a scorching begin. He posted an OPS comfortably over 1.000 via Could, however that’s cratered to under .600 since. Freeman’s swoon has coincided with struggles from lots of his teammates, and in consequence, the Dodgers offense as an entire. They’ve solely scored 3.6 runs per recreation in July, with Freeman, Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernandez all under a .600 OPS within the final 30 days. Don’t fear Dodger followers, you’re nonetheless in first by 3.5 video games.

 

 

Freeman’s rolling Course of+ chart exhibits that some concern is merited. There’s been appreciable erosion to his energy output, and the contact means has fallen to under common. This jives with a few of Freeman’s different stats, specifically a career-worst barrel fee per plate look (6.2%) and what can be the second-worst strikeout fee of his profession (22.9%). A leap of over 4 proportion factors in swinging strike fee absolutely helps the strikeout spike. So as to add insult to damage, Freeman has supplied subsequent to no pace, which I think about will be defined by nagging ankle points. He was positioned on the IL in early April after spraining the surgically-repaired ankle in a bathe mishap, and he reportedly was receiving 90 minutes of remedy on it earlier than every recreation.

Verdict: Panic… largely. I checked Freeman’s 400-pitch rolling Course of+ charts all the way in which again to 2021, and he’s by no means dipped under league common within the metric. The truth is, there was hardly a time the place any one of many three points was a web detrimental over the past 400 pitches. I do know Course of+ isn’t all the pieces and doesn’t map completely onto fantasy worth, however this pattern mixed with a doubtlessly lingering damage makes me assume that one thing is fallacious right here. Freeman’s season-long line stays robust, and he has a prolonged observe document of being an exquisite all-categories contributor. In the event you can transfer him for a top-30 SP in consequence, I might go for it. With out the steals, his profile is now that of a premium accumulator (assume pre-2025 Bryan Reynolds with a barely higher common) quite than top-end possibility on the place.

 

Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, KCR

 

2025: 152 PA, .149/.211/.291 (34 wRC+), 9 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB

Merely put, Jac Caglianone has the potential to be one of the thrilling gamers in baseball. In 2024, he was the closest factor faculty baseball needed to Shohei Ohtani, blasting homers with 80-grade exit velos and throwing warmth on the mound. Lower than a 12 months later, and now purely specializing in hitting, he was referred to as as much as the massive leagues to be Kansas Metropolis’s on a regular basis proper fielder. Thoughts you, he didn’t play a single inning of outfield at Florida and solely had 13 video games there underneath his belt within the minors earlier than getting the decision. That’s rather a lot to throw on the younger fella!

Predictably, individuals in leagues of each depth rushed so as to add him, and FAAB bids have been astronomical. In spite of everything, the man did have 15 homers and a .322 AVG in 50 minor league video games. To this point, it’s been an unmitigated catastrophe. Even together with his homer on Monday, Cags has been the second-worst certified hitter since his call-up, forward of solely Michael Harris II (27 wRC+). On the danger of stating the apparent, dangerous luck has been an enormous issue. His .154 BABIP is definitely the worst of any hitter with 150+ PAs. Jared Triolo is second-worst at .176, and there are solely 4 guys under .200!

 

 

As you’ll be able to see from his rolling Course of+ chart, Caglianone’s largest situation is his plate self-discipline. It could shock you that it’s not his contact means provided that he’s a hulking slugger, however that is constant together with his newbie scouting report and temporary minor league observe document. Cags is manner too swing-happy on the dish, with a 40.1% chase fee (sixth percentile) and 53.1% swing fee (eighty fifth percentile). From what we’ve seen to this point, pitchers have been ready for this and have taken the proper method to getting Cags out. He has solely seen 41% of choices within the zone (1st percentile). Apparently, Caglianone has additionally been attacked inside greater than anybody within the league, seeing 38.7% of his pitches there. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s efficiency to this point this 12 months has proven you can achieve success with a excessive chase fee whereas seeing a ton of pitches out of the zone, however that feels extra just like the exception than the rule.

 

Verdict: Panic… largely. After I say panic right here, I imply it purely when it comes to this season, and I imply it relative to what managers have been anticipating after they initially added Caglianone. If KC retains working him on the market, we’ll in all probability see a ton of optimistic regression within the batting common division, and he ought to preserve a 20-25 homer tempo. However, I believe it’s unlikely that Caglianone is the game-changer that individuals who added him have been hoping for, particularly given how weak Kansas Metropolis’s offense is. It has positively improved in latest weeks as Salvador Perez has caught hearth, however there’s nonetheless fairly just a few guys in there that don’t strike me as on a regular basis major-leaguers.

I believe persistence is warranted in deeper leagues and naturally keeper/dynasty codecs, however these hoping for a Nick Kurtz-type breakout might need to attend till subsequent season. Whereas Cags’ fellow 2024 draftee has sub-par contact means, his swing selections are robust, and he was capable of regulate extra shortly than Cags has. Other than 25 horrible plate appearances in April, Kurtz has had an OPS above .850 each single month of his profession.

My remainder of season outlook on Caglianone in shallower leagues is that he’s an OK bench bat for groups in want of energy or positional versatility, however he doesn’t have a transparent path to relevance in 12-team, 3-OF leagues barring some drastic modifications in his method on the plate. On the similar time, I might be open to buying him in a 15-teamer or 5 OF league if he’s dropped otherwise you solely have to offer away a mediocre participant. I do know I’m waffling a bit right here, however that’s the place I’m at on the man! We will hope for an affordable draft worth subsequent 12 months because of these struggles, however the instruments are in all probability too loud to allow that.

 

Sonny Grey, SP, STL

 

Final 4 begins (since 7/2): 1-2, 17.2 IP, 22 Ks, 7.64 ERA, 1.47 WHIP

2025: 9-4, 111.1 IP, 123 Ks, 4.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

A down stretch acquired rather a lot worse for Grey this weekend, because the Diamondbacks pounded him to the tune of 9 runs (eight earned) on 11 hits in 3.1 IP. The outing pushed his ERA over 4.00 for the primary time since after his begin on Could 25. On the intense aspect, his velocity was consistent with the place it’s been all season, and he one way or the other nonetheless managed a 33% CSW%.

Grey is a pitcher who thrives by being unpredictable. He options six pitches at the least 7% of the time and has 4 choices above 10% utilization for batters of each handedness. In consequence, batters are sometimes unable to take a seat on anybody providing. It permits his stuff to play up regardless that he lacks a really elite pitch like many frontline guys. His finest providing is the sweeper, whose 5.43 PLV is within the eighty fifth percentile. It has an astounding swinging strike fee of 24% in opposition to each righties and lefties, and I believe he may benefit from upping its utilization, which is at present at 20%.

 

Verdict: Persistence. The 4.04 ERA belies Grey’s fantasy worth to this point this 12 months, as he’s been strong to elite in strikeouts, WHIP, and wins. The ERA above isn’t indicative of how nicely he’s pitched this 12 months. His 23% Okay-BB% is elite and nearly matches final 12 months’s career-best mark of 24.4%, a season wherein Grey had a middling 3.84 ERA however fanned over 200 hitters with a glowing 1.09 WHIP. Grey’s stuff is barely diminished from final 12 months, together with his velocity down a tick, however he’s clearly nonetheless executing at a excessive degree. PLV backs this up, as Grey has solely had two outings with a PLV under 5.00 since Could 7. I might be shopping for him as a top-35 SP if somebody is pissed off with this latest poor stretch.