Rating the highest contenders on the US Open 2025

The final, and loudest, Grand Slam occasion of the tennis season is upon us. The storylines overflow because the US Open will get underway this weekend.

Assuming Jannik Sinner has recovered from the sickness that wrecked this previous week’s Cincinnati remaining towards Carlos Alcaraz, the brand new huge two of males’s tennis is overwhelmingly favored to make it three straight Slam finals towards one another.

In the meantime, Aryna Sabalenka is a superb 67-13 on the season however has fallen quick late in all three Slams and should fend off a torrid Iga Swiatek (who has gained 14 of her previous 15 matches), Coco Gauff (who toppled her within the French Open remaining) and numerous different challengers from a ladies’s tour that’s as deep because it has ever been.

In fact, whereas we expect we all know how the match would possibly play out, issues hardly ever go as deliberate on the US Open. That may be a nasty factor should you’re, say, a legend going for a calendar Slam (Serena Williams in 2015, Novak Djokovic in 2021). It may be an awfully good factor should you’re an up-and-comer able to make an out-of-nowhere run (Naomi Osaka in 2018, Bianca Andreescu in 2019, Emma Raducanu in 2021).

The chaos begins instantly with a tantalizing first spherical. On the lads’s aspect, we get matches like Alcaraz vs. big-serving veteran Reilly Opelka, four-time champion Djokovic vs. tough younger American Learner Tien and 10-seed Lorenzo Musetti vs. big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. On the ladies’s aspect, we get the ageless Venus Williams vs. two-time semifinalist Karolina Muchova, big-hitting younger Canadian Victoria Mboko vs. two-time Slam champ Barbora Krejcikova and the retiring Petra Kvitova vs. veteran Diane Parry.

Whether or not chaos or chalk awaits us over the subsequent fortnight, let’s get to know the names which can be most definitely to outline the match.

The favorites

Jannik Sinner

ESPN BET odds: +115 | Tennis Summary odds: 44.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)

Over the previous yr, the 24-year-old Italian is 56-5 — 1-4 towards Alcaraz (together with the Cincinnati retirement) and 55-1 towards everybody else. He’s 6-foot-3 and might get from nook to nook in milliseconds. His groundstrokes are so pure that he appears to nearly hit unintentional winners from impartial conditions at occasions. He’s completely dynamite, and whereas his draw will not be a whole breeze and he would possibly nonetheless be working his method again to full energy, Sinner won’t must shift into fifth gear till a possible 2024 semifinal rematch towards Draper.

Carlos Alcaraz

ESPN BET odds: +155 | Tennis Summary odds: 34.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Ben Shelton (quarterfinals)

That is proper, the mixed title odds from Tennis Summary are Sinner/Alcaraz 79%, the opposite 126 males 21%. Alcaraz’s draw is dotted with attention-grabbing challenges — Opelka within the first spherical, then perhaps 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev within the fourth and boisterous American Shelton within the quarters — however once you’ve gained 39 of your previous 41 matches and you have made seven straight finals, because the 22-year-old Alcaraz has, you get the advantage of the doubt. These two males have dramatically separated themselves from the remainder of the game.

Iga Swiatek

ESPN BET odds: +270 | Tennis Summary odds: 25.7%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Amanda Anisimova (quarterfinals)

Bear in mind once we had been pretending Swiatek was having a nasty yr? It was solely poor by Swiatek’s requirements — even earlier than her Wimbledon title run, she had reached seven semifinals and two finals — nevertheless it’s moot regardless as a result of that funk is over. Swiatek enters the US Open having gained 28 of her previous 31 units, and if she wins this match and Sabalenka loses earlier than the quarterfinals (admittedly unlikely), she may transfer again to No. 1, the place she spent most of 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Aryna Sabalenka

ESPN BET odds: +280 | Tennis Summary odds: 25.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini or No. 9 Elena Rybakina (quarterfinals)

The defending US Open champion was the betting favourite earlier than the draw, however her odds fell beneath Swiatek’s after she was handed a possible path of 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez within the third spherical, 14-seed Clara Tauson (the one particular person to beat Swiatek up to now two months) within the fourth and 9-seed Rybakina (who swept Sabalenka in Cincinnati) within the quarters. Sabalenka is the surest factor within the sport, with 10 semifinal appearances in her previous 11 Slams, however a title repeat in New York will take some work.

Coco Gauff

ESPN BET odds: +750 | Tennis Summary odds: 9.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (quarterfinals)

The 2025 season has been a curler coaster for the 21-year-old, who misplaced 6 of 11 matches at one level early on, then rolled by way of the clay-court season with three finals appearances and her first French Open title, solely to drop 4 of 8 matches since. Her serve betrayed her once more this summer time, and she or he has shaken up her teaching employees as soon as once more. Her draw is hard, however eliminating double faults alone would make her a contender.

Former champs

Novak Djokovic

ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Summary odds: 4.5%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals)

The all-time males’s Slam champion has change into a majors-only participant at this level — his previous two tournaments had been the French Open and Wimbledon. The 38-year-old made the semis at each, in fact, so it is arduous to query the method. He may once more be the favourite to win his quarter, which is loaded with Individuals (Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Alex Michelsen, Sebastian Korda), and in a pleasant change of tempo, he did not land in Sinner’s half of the draw this time. (Sinner pummeled him in straight units in Paris and London.) Djokovic has nothing to show at this level, however one other finals run won’t be out of the query if he can kick the rust off.

Naomi Osaka

ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Gauff (fourth spherical)

The 2-time US Open champ reached the finals in Montreal this summer time — her first 1000-level remaining since Miami 2022 — sweeping Jelena Ostapenko, Elina Svitolina and Tauson within the course of. She’s 27-12 on the yr (6-4 towards High 30 opponents), she appears to have rediscovered a high-level return sport, and at No. 23, she’s seeded at a Slam for the primary time in practically 4 years. She’ll be favored in each match till a possible assembly with Gauff.

Daniil Medvedev

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth spherical)

From the 2019 US Open by way of the 2024 Australian Open, Medvedev made the finals in 6 of 10 hard-court Slams, successful the 2021 US Open within the course of. He has discovered life tough in 2025, nevertheless; 1-3 in Slams and has spent most of his latest months exterior the ATP High 10. In an try and rediscover his rhythm on arduous courts this summer time, he as an alternative misplaced to Alexei Popyrin (No. 26 on the time), Adam Walton (No. 85) and Dalibor Svrcina (No. 120). May the magic return in New York?

Emma Raducanu

ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.7%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Elena Rybakina (second spherical)

Accidents and crushing expectations have weighed the 22-year-old Raducanu down since her 2021 US Open title romp, however the vibes are bettering. She’s as much as thirty fifth within the WTA rankings, her finest rating since 2022. She swept Osaka on the way in which to the semifinals in Washington, and in her most up-to-date match, she misplaced an epic to Sabalenka, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6. Her momentum shall be examined in New York: She might need to beat each Rybakina and No. 7 Paolini simply to get a Sabalenka rematch within the quarterfinals.

Venus Williams

ESPN BET odds: +50000 | Tennis Summary odds: <0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (fourth spherical)

Her two US Open titles (2000, 2001) are older than most of the ladies within the draw, she has much less to show than nearly anybody on the planet. However the 45-year-old confirmed up in Washington in July and pummeled Peyton Stearns (No. 35 on the time), serving up a truckload of aces within the course of. She’s now the second-oldest girl to ever win a tour match, she’s hungry for extra and she or he’ll play in perhaps the most important headline match of the primary spherical towards Muchova.

Others: Marin Cilic (2014 champion, +20000)

In addition they love New York

Madison Keys

ESPN BET odds: +1800 | Tennis Summary odds: 3.9%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Gauff (quarterfinals)

At age 30, Keys is having fun with her finest season since 2016 — she has gained 37 matches (most since 2016) with a 0.755 win proportion (finest ever), and she or he in fact grabbed her first Slam title again in Australia. The 2-time US Open semifinalist (and 2017 finalist) reached the semis in solely certainly one of her previous 10 tournaments, however her draw is fairly strong till a minimum of the fourth spherical (the place she may face both Muchova or 21-seed Linda Noskova … or Venus!).

Ben Shelton

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Summary odds: 1.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alcaraz (quarterfinals)

He misplaced to Sinner in Australia, to Alcaraz in Paris and to Sinner once more at Wimbledon. Shelton’s return sport nonetheless lacks, however his serve and his good attacking sport have moved him as much as No. 6 within the ATP rankings. He is changing into a constant pressure in Slams, too, reaching a minimum of the fourth spherical in 5 of his previous six. Touchdown in Alcaraz’s quarter was unlucky, however he’ll be favored in every of his first 4 matches.

ESPN BET odds: +2200 | Tennis Summary odds: 6.0%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur or No. 9 Karen Khachanov (quarterfinals)

The 2020 finalist is constant sufficient along with his serve and sufferball capabilities that he has change into fairly upset-proof (first-round Wimbledon loss apart), however he is 2-5 towards top-10 opponents in 2025, and a kind of wins was an harm retirement towards Djokovic on the Australian Open. That mentioned, he will not face a top-10 opponent till the quarterfinals on the earliest.

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 3.0%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Mirra Andreeva or No. 10 Emma Navarro (quarterfinals)

It has been an odd yr for the 31-year-old. Outdoors of Slams, she’s 32-13 with 5 finals appearances and three titles. However since lastly breaking by way of to achieve the US Open remaining this previous yr, she has stunk in Slams, successful solely 5 matches within the first three of 2025. She involves New York having misplaced 4 of her previous six matches, too, and now she has a ton of rankings factors to defend. Her draw is manageable. Her kind? Iffy.

Taylor Fritz

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 2.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Djokovic (quarterfinals)

Like so many others within the males’s draw, Fritz has hit his head on a Sinner-and-Alcaraz ceiling; over the previous yr, he is 53-17 towards everybody else on tour however 0-5 towards the massive two (whole units: huge two 12, Fritz 1). For that matter, he is 0-10 lifetime towards Djokovic, his potential quarterfinal opponent, as properly. Nonetheless, he’s serving in addition to anybody not named Sinner, his pre-Djokovic draw is pleasant, and he returns to New York assured after this previous yr’s run to the ultimate.

Jack Draper

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth spherical)

When his physique cooperates, the 2024 US Open semifinalist appears to be like like one of many prime candidates to show the lads’s huge two into an enormous three. He beat Alcaraz at Indian Wells, and he is 28-7 towards anybody not named Alcaraz and Sinner in 2025. However this shall be his first singles match since he injured his left arm at Wimbledon. He may face big-hitting Canadian Gabriel Diallo within the third spherical, too, so he will not have a lot time to play his method into kind.

Others: Emma Navarro (2024 semifinalist, +3300), Alex De Minaur (two-time quarterfinalist, +4000), Elina Svitolina (2019 semifinalist, +4000), Belinda Bencic (2019 semifinalist, +5000), Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist, +5000), Karolina Muchova (2023 semifinalist, +5000), Casper Ruud (2022 finalist, +8000), Frances Tiafoe (two-time semifinalist, +8000), Felix Auger-Aliassime (2021 semifinalist, +10000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (2024 quarterfinalist, +10000), Karen Khachanov (2022 semifinalist, +10000), Victoria Azarenka (three-time finalist, +15000), Gael Monfils (2016 semifinalist, +20000), Maria Sakkari (2021 semifinalist, +20000), Caroline Garcia (2022 semifinalist, +40000), Pablo Carreno Busta (two-time semifinalist, +100000)

The record of ladies’s contenders in 2025 is countless

Mirra Andreeva

ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Summary odds: 8.3%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (fourth spherical)

Progress is never linear; that is one thing Mirra Andreeva has definitely needed to internalize in 2025. The 18-year-old gained back-to-back 1000-level hard-court occasions in February (Dubai) and March (Indian Wells), beating Sabalenka, Swiatek (twice) and Rybakina (twice) within the course of. However she is just 17-9 since, and she or he has spent the previous month making an attempt to get better from a nasty-looking rolled ankle in Montreal. If she will be able to kick into gear rapidly sufficient to beat big-hitting Alycia Parks within the first spherical, her draw may turn into favorable. However we’ll see what sort of kind she has to supply.

Elena Rybakina

ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Summary odds: 4.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (fourth spherical)

Sabalenka needed to let loose a small groan when she noticed Rybakina land in her quarter. Rybakina’s kind has been up and down in 2025, and she or he is 5-5 all-time on the US Open. However she has gained 8 of her previous 10 matches and 5 of her previous 8 towards Sabalenka, together with a 6-1, 6-4 pummeling in Cincinnati. (In fact, she might need to first get previous Paolini, towards whom she has misplaced three of 4.)

Victoria Mboko

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Summary odds: 1.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third spherical)

Sofia Kenin, Gauff, Rybakina and Osaka have mixed to win eight Slam titles, seven on arduous courts. Mboko beat all 4 of them on her solution to the Montreal title earlier this month. Her relentless energy blew Kenin and Gauff off the courtroom and wore down Rybakina and Osaka in three units as properly, and her poise was otherworldly for a young person. She landed in the identical quarter as Andreeva, Pegula and Navarro — aka, the “iffy kind” quarter — and if she will be able to deal with expectations and hype, she may make her first huge Slam run in New York.

Amanda Anisimova

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Summary odds: 1.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Swiatek (quarterfinals)

Her unbelievable Wimbledon run ended with a 6-0, 6-0 splat towards Swiatek within the remaining, however Anisimova has nonetheless made big strikes in 2025 and will end the yr within the WTA High 10 for the primary time. Is there nonetheless fuel within the tank? The 23-year-old is 2-2 since Wimbledon and 3-5 all-time on the US Open. Can she a minimum of play her solution to a quarterfinal rematch with Swiatek?

Jasmine Paolini

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Summary odds: 2.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Rybakina (fourth spherical)

After reaching back-to-back Slam finals in 2024, the 29-year-old has gone 6-3 in Slams this yr. However she has nonetheless made 5 semifinals and two finals up to now six months to stay eighth on the planet, and her 3-0 document towards Gauff in that span may have set her up properly with the best draw. As a substitute, she landed in Sabalenka’s quarter; she has dropped eight straight units towards the world No. 1.

Others: Ekaterina Alexandrova (+4000), Jelena Ostapenko (+5000), Barbora Krejcikova (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Clara Tauson (+5000), Marketa Vondrousova (+5000)

Males’s breakthrough (and rebound) candidates

ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.5%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Djokovic (fourth spherical)

Rune stays each younger (22) and maddening. He’s 5-4 towards top-10 opponents this yr and swept Alcaraz within the Barcelona remaining in April. He’s additionally 4-4 towards gamers ranked exterior the highest 100 and has gone one-and-done in six occasions in 2025. He may take down Djokovic and Fritz and surge to the semis — and he may lose to giant-killer Botic Van De Zandschulp within the first spherical.

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Fritz (fourth spherical)

The sweet-swinging 19-year-old has realized precisely how a lot of a grind it may be on tour this yr. He reached 4 finals from December by way of March and gained his first ATP-level title in February, however he’s additionally 8-10 since late March. And since beating Andrey Rublev on the Australian Open, he has gone 0-6 towards top-15 opponents. His sport stays tantalizing, however he must get his legs again beneath him.

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alcaraz (second spherical)

The 26-year-old Spaniard was exterior the highest 60 initially of the yr, however he has charged to 18th this summer time because of a run of 11 wins (two towards the highest 10) in 17 matches. He had back-to-back retirements in Toronto and Cincinnati after fatigue kicked in, however he has gotten some relaxation, is superb on arduous courts and will take a look at Alcaraz in Spherical 2.

Lorenzo Musetti

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Draper (fourth spherical)

Musetti was having fun with a profession season and reached the French Open semifinals, however since having to retire towards Alcaraz with a thigh harm in Paris, he has performed solely 5 matches and misplaced 4. The draw hasn’t achieved him any favors. He should face big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard within the first spherical, and if he survives that, he may see Draper within the fourth spherical and Sinner within the quarters.

Others: Andrey Rublev (+6600), Alexander Bublik (+8000), Jakub Mensik (+8000), Tommy Paul (+8000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (+8000)