2025 U.S. Open odds: Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s skilled picks, greatest bets

“Bear Bets” are actual wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is definitely making.

The U.S. Open shall be held at Oakmont Nation Membership, in Plum, Pennsylvania, for a report tenth time. 

Sports activities followers will lock in for the historic occasion (the primary U.S. Open occurred in 1895) from June 12-15.

There’s simply one thing extremely particular about this PGA main, and there may be enjoyable available for all — significantly in relation to laying a number of wagers. 

So, let’s leap into the motion.

Patrick Cantlay to complete high 10, high 20
Patrick Cantlay vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Patrick Cantlay vs. Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay to win with out Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Bryson DeChambeau/Jon Rahm

Patrick Cantlay has been an excellent U.S. Open participant, posting 4 straight top-15s, together with what would have been a win on this market final yr, as he completed third behind Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. We’ll see if there’s some luck within the dart throw right here at 25-1. I’ll additionally take Cantlay head-to-head in opposition to Justin Thomas, who has only one top-30 end in a serious since profitable the PGA in 2022, and Tommy Fleetwood, who’s at all times overbet on and overvalued in majors. Cantlay’s driving and iron play combo ought to give him an opportunity at par — and presumably birdie — on most holes, and par is a good rating this week.

PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+280) to complete high 10, (+130) to complete high 20
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (-115) vs. Justin Thomas
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) to win with out Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm

Corey Conners vs. Sepp Straka

Conners has a run of 4 straight top-25s in majors, starting with a top-10 at Pinehurst final yr. Straka did end second within the 2023 Open Championship, however his main report is fairly spotty outdoors that — he’s missed each cuts this yr and in six of his final 12 majors. Being runner-up in 2023 is one among three top-20s he has from his 16 majors. Conners is tenth in SG. Off-the-Tee, and placing the ball within the fairway shall be important this week.

PICK: Corey Conners (-110) vs. Sepp Straka

Russell Henley to complete high 20
Russell Henley vs. Ben Griffin

Poor first rounds in each the Masters and PGA took Henley out of the match this yr, however the U.S. Open has been the place Henley has usually performed his greatest in majors. He’s been within the high 15 three of the final 4 years, and whereas Ben Griffin has been taking part in some terrific golf these days, that is fairly the indoctrination to main championship golf, so I am curious — and skeptical — as to how properly that performs out.

PICK: Russell Henley (+150) to complete high 20
PICK: Russell Henley (+100) vs. Ben Griffin

Jason Day to overlook the reduce
Ryan Fox vs. Jason Day

Look, Jason Day just isn’t somebody anybody desires to “root” in opposition to. However there are undoubtedly well being considerations right here. For Day to overlook the Memorial, he will need to have one thing fairly painful occurring. A pair balls in that thick tough may definitely agitate a balky again and wrist. U.S. Open-type programs haven’t been good for Day these days as he’s missed the final two and 4 of the final six cuts. Fox is available in off a win, a top-20 on the Memorial and a top-30 on the PGA, so he’s undoubtedly the in-form participant.

PICK: Jason Day (+120) to overlook the reduce
PICK: Ryan Fox (-110) vs. Jason Day

Taylor Pendrith to complete Prime 30
Taylor Pendrith vs. Min Woo Lee

Taylor Pendrith has been probably the greatest drivers on tour this yr and, regardless of placing troubles, he’s posted 4 top-10s and a pair of top-5s, together with on the Quail Hole final month. Min Woo Lee is somebody I preserve anticipating to make a little bit of a leap, nevertheless it hasn’t occurred but — primarily due to poor iron play. Since profitable the Houston Open, Lee hasn’t been higher than forty ninth in any of his 5 occasions, together with an MC at Quail Hole.

PICK: Taylor Pendrith (+160) to complete high 30
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to make the reduce
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen vs. Matt Wallace

Neergaard-Petersen simply missed the reduce on the PGA, however performed properly within the different two PGA Tour occasions he participated in, practically profitable the Puerto Rico Open. Wallace has missed the reduce in additional than half the Tour occasions he’s performed this yr, so regardless of the most important outlier top-20 within the PGA for Wallace, I’ll go together with the extra constant Neergard-Petersen.

PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (-120) to make the reduce
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-110) vs. Matt Wallace

Xander Schauffele to complete Prime 20

Xander’s run of 12 straight main top-20s ended at Quail Hole when Schauffele completed T-28. He hasn’t been totally wholesome this yr, however seems to totally embrace the situations and what to anticipate from Oakmont this week. The psychological battle is an enormous a part of main championship golf and the very fact Schauffele has that down, it is time to begin a brand new top-20 streak.

PICK: Xander Schauffele (-120) to complete high 20

Lower Line Over 147.5

There’s +8 as a reduce line? Yeah, it may simply occur, correctly sunny Thursday and Friday, making issues quick and agency — which means the greens needs to be insanely fast and tough. I choose this reduce line wager to a profitable rating prop, as there may be rain anticipated over the weekend, which could soften issues up some. No rain, we’re +4 or in order a profitable rating. Rain would imply -4 is feasible, so let’s simply anticipate stunning carnage the primary two days and a few huge names to overlook the reduce.

PICK: Lower Line (+100) Over 147.5

Rory McIlroy to overlook the reduce

Talking of lacking the reduce — the place is Rory’s head proper now? Because the driver controversy on the PGA, McIlroy has been a multitude, ending T-47 on the PGA and lacking the reduce in Canada. He additionally skipped out on the Memorial and didn’t give Jack Nicklaus a heads-up, after which reportedly shot 81 in a apply spherical at Oakmont. After, it regarded wish to me, he had this misplaced look to him. We have been all rooting for him to complete off the profession slam at Augusta, however since then it has been all downhill for Rory, who may not see the weekend right here.

PICK: Rory McIlroy (+250) to overlook the reduce

Justin Thomas to overlook the reduce

I discussed earlier how JT has only one main top-30 since profitable the PGA in 2022. He’s additionally missed the reduce in a half dozen majors since, together with every of the final two U.S. Opens. His propensity to overlook the green — 121st in driving accuracy, 94th SG Off-the Tee — means he might be within the thick stuff lots. And that will be the kiss of dying right here.

PICK: Justin Thomas (+175) to overlook the reduce

Min Woo Lee to overlook the reduce

Lee has struggled in each majors this yr and has missed the reduce in two of his final three. Lee’s putter is the very best a part of his recreation, but when he isn’t hitting greens, then surviving on one-putt pars just isn’t the way in which to go right here.

PICK: Min Woo Lee (-110) to overlook the reduce

Brooks Koepka to overlook the reduce

Koepka has performed 4 rounds in two majors this yr. Do the mathematics — which means he’s missed the reduce in each, with 74 being his greatest spherical. We’re a few years eliminated now from Koepka being the must-play in majors, as he hasn’t posted a top-25 for the reason that 2023 U.S. Open. His final seven majors: Lower, Lower, T-43, T-26, T-26, T-45, T-64.

PICK: Brooks Koepka (+105) to overlook the reduce

Max Greyserman to make the reduce

Greyserman’s three majors for the reason that begin of final yr have all been greater than respectable — T-33, T-32 and T-21 at Pinehurst final yr. He’s posted a spherical within the 60s in every of them. He’s missed simply two cuts in 17 occasions this yr, making the reduce in each majors. His distance off the tee ought to assist him make it 3-for-3 in main cuts this yr.

PICK: Max Greyserman (-110) to make the reduce

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for practically three a long time. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago received the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Keep in mind, “The much less you guess, the extra you lose once you win!” Observe him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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